Independence would be a fiscal windfall and Alberta would owe no share of the national debt.
Claimed by: Alberta Prosperity Project fiscal plan
Contested: Credible sources disagree, or the outcome depends on events that have not happened yet. How we rate.
Summary
This bundles two assertions, that independence delivers a fiscal surplus and that Alberta would owe no share of the national debt, and both are genuinely disputed rather than settled. Alberta is a large net contributor to federal finances, so ending that outflow is a real potential gain that supporters point to. Cutting the other way, independent modelling by economist Trevor Tombe finds separation would raise trade costs and prompt out-migration, leaving the province poorer on balance, and international practice is for a successor state to negotiate an equitable share of the predecessor's general debt rather than none, with one estimate for the comparable Quebec case at roughly 20 to 22 percent. Because the net result depends on debt negotiations and economic responses that have not happened, whether independence is a windfall is contested. The two underlying questions, whether Albertans would be wealthier and whether Alberta would owe a debt share, are each unsettled as well.
Evidence
A separatist fiscal plan was criticized for making no mention of assuming any part of Canada's roughly $1.3-trillion national debt while projecting a surplus.
Peer-reviewed analysis of secession finds a successor state is expected to take an equitable share of general debt, with a GDP-based estimate for the comparable Quebec case of about 20 to 22 percent.
Economist Trevor Tombe's modelling finds an independent Alberta would be poorer, not the windfall separatist budgets describe.