Because Alberta sends far more to Ottawa than it gets back, an independent Alberta would keep a large fiscal surplus to spend at home.
Claimed by: Fiscal case made by Alberta independence advocates
Contested: Credible sources disagree, or the outcome depends on events that have not happened yet. How we rate.
Summary
The starting fact is real. Alberta is by far the largest net contributor to federal finances, on the order of $244.6 billion from 2007 to 2022 by the Fraser Institute's estimate, money an independent Alberta would no longer send to Ottawa. Whether that translates into a lasting surplus to spend at home is genuinely disputed. Independent modelling by economist Trevor Tombe finds a separate Alberta would likely be poorer overall once it takes on a share of the federal debt, absorbs the cost of running the federal functions it now shares in, and faces new trade and border frictions with its largest market. Advocates counter that the retained transfer is large enough to outweigh those costs. Because credible analyses reach opposite conclusions and the result depends on terms that would only be set in negotiation, the outcome is contested rather than settled.
Evidence
The non-partisan Library of Parliament confirms Alberta is the largest per-capita net contributor to federal finances, with the federal government raising more revenue per person there than it spends.
Library of Parliament (federal revenues and expenditures by province)
The Fraser Institute estimates Alberta's net contribution to federal finances at $244.6 billion from 2007 to 2022, far more than any other province.
Independent modelling finds a separate Alberta would likely be poorer overall, because the retained transfer is offset by its share of federal debt, the loss of fiscal integration, and new trade frictions.
A separate Alberta would have to fund the federal functions it currently shares in, from defence to programs Ottawa now delivers, which would reduce any headline surplus.