Alberta separation and public opinion

A majority of Albertans support leaving Canada.

Polling consistently shows the opposite, and support has fallen further in mid-2026. An Ipsos survey for Global News conducted May 28 to June 1, 2026 found only 19 percent of Albertans would vote yes on Question 10 to begin the legal process toward a binding separation referendum, with 72 percent choosing to remain in Canada. On a hypothetical binding leave-or-stay vote, support for leaving was 18 percent, down 10 points from January. A May 2026 Angus Reid survey had found 35 percent in favour of starting the separation process. A July 2026 Research Co. national survey found 33 percent of Alberta respondents would vote for Alberta to become its own country, 50 percent against, and 17 percent undecided; that same poll found half of Alberta respondents expected the October vote could eventually lead to a binding referendum, which measures expectation about process, not support for leaving. The Research Co. survey interviewed 1,002 adults nationwide; its ±3.1-point margin applies to the national sample, not necessarily to the smaller Alberta subsample. Support is real and concentrated in some regions and among some party voters, but a province-wide majority for leaving is not borne out by the evidence.

A new pro-independence campaign called Let Alberta Decide launched in June 2026.

On June 19, 2026, separatist advocates formally launched a pro-independence campaign called Let Alberta Decide at a Calgary event four months before the October 19 referendum. Co-chairs include lawyer Keith Wilson and farmer Tanya Clemens. Organizers said the campaign will use media, advertising, and public engagement to argue Alberta has the workforce, finances, and energy and agriculture resources to succeed as an independent state. Wilson acknowledged the campaign is an uphill battle and said he believed a vote held that day would not succeed, but argued Albertans had received skewed information from Ottawa's side. The launch is a real organizing effort; it does not by itself change referendum law or ballot wording.

The UCP party board supports Alberta separation.

Several elected United Conservative Party board members attended a large separatist rally at the legislature in fall 2025, and at least two current directors later gave interviews expressing personal support for Alberta independence. Party president Rob Smith said in May 2026 that the party would not take an official position on the October referendum, and on Facebook he welcomed board members' attendance at the rally. That is real evidence of separatist sympathy among some board members and other senior party organizers. It is not the same as the board adopting separation as party policy. Premier Danielle Smith said she speaks for the party and, after a public dispute with the president, the UCP issued a statement reaffirming a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada. The party's published statement of principles does not explicitly mention loyalty to Canada. Stating flatly that the board supports separation overstates a mixed picture of individual views, internal dispute, and a restated federalist party line from leadership.

Alberta is holding a binding referendum on separation in 2026.

Alberta's premier and government want the province to separate.

Premier Danielle Smith has said repeatedly that she does not support separation and that she will personally vote for Alberta to remain in Canada, describing her goal as a strong and sovereign Alberta within a united Canada. Her government set up a framework that lets citizens trigger a referendum by petition and added its own ballot question, which is why critics tie her to the cause, but that is not the same as the government advocating separation. As stated, the claim misrepresents her stated position.